Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday after April's CPI came in hotter than expected. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16% to 7,400.96, the Nasdaq dropped 0.71% to 26,088.20, while the Dow eked out a 0.11% gain to 49,760.56.
Headline inflation ran at 3.8% YoY, the highest reading since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.42%, a one-week high. Rate-cut bets are getting pushed further out.
Tonight, focus shifts to Alibaba's earnings before the US open. Alibaba (BABA) is one of the most widely held Asian names in retail portfolios, so the print will set the tone for the session.
Tonight's Watchlist 📈
| Stock | Movement | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| BABA | Pre-market: wait for print | Reports before the bell. Focus: cloud revenue, AI capex, China consumer pulse. Hold into the release. |
| NVDA | Flat post-CPI | Jensen Huang joins Trump's China trip. Early signal on chip export easing. Watch. |
| AMD | Volatile week | AI capex narrative intact, margins still strong. Chatter ahead of the June 5 event. Hold. |
| MSFT | Flat | Sam Altman testifies in the Musk vs OpenAI trial. Read-through to the MSFT-OpenAI partnership. Watch. |
| PLTR | Sideways | Analyst commentary still constructive on the AI revenue acceleration. Hold. |
Tonight's Catalysts 🧨
- Alibaba (BABA) earnings before the open. Consensus revenue of 246B yuan (up 4% YoY) and EPS of $0.90 (down from $1.83 a year ago). Key focus areas: cloud revenue, AI capex spend, and Taobao/Tmall momentum.
- Iran tensions still a risk-off layer. WTI and Brent both trading above $100 a barrel, adding to an already hot inflation backdrop. Energy could see rotational interest tonight.
- Jensen Huang (NVDA CEO) on the Trump China trip. Early signal that chip export terms could loosen. Read-through to AMD and the broader semiconductor supply chain.
Pre-Market Pulse 📊
US futures are mixed into the open. Hot CPI is still in the rearview, and the tape will weigh BABA's reaction before the bell. Sectors to watch: tech (BABA as China internet proxy), energy (oil rally continuation), and defensives (if risk-off persists).
Macro Note 📝
The rupiah closed near 17,496 per US dollar, the weakest level of the year. Bank Indonesia has telegraphed calibrated intervention and tightened dollar purchase rules to absorb the pressure. The context matters for Indonesian investors holding US stocks. A stronger dollar boosts portfolio value in rupiah terms, but it also raises the cost of fresh entries.
Tonight's session pivots on two narratives: an inflation print that keeps the Fed on hold and an Alibaba release that sets the pulse for Asian tech. The reaction to BABA will telegraph the next few sessions.
For investors actively repositioning, the notes are simple: BABA into the print can be volatile, NVDA has a real chip diplomacy catalyst, and a weak rupiah makes USD-to-IDR conversion favorable if you are already positioned.
What stocks are you watching tonight?
