Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
Jakarta, Gotrade News -
The US stock market calendar kicks off with a holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day this week. Even with a shorter trading week, volatility is expected to remain high leading up to the GDP data release.
The market is currently testing the US economic "soft landing" narrative. Investors will be laser-focused on whether economic growth remains strong amidst tariff headlines and sector rotation.
Market Highlights (Key Takeaways)
Here are the main points you need to watch this week:
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US Market Holiday: Stock markets (NYSE, Nasdaq) are closed on Monday, Jan 19, observing MLK Day.
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Q4 GDP Release: US economic growth data will be the deciding factor for The Fed's next policy move.
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Netflix Earnings: The earnings report from $NFLX will be a key indicator for the health of the tech and streaming sector.
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The Great Rotation: We are seeing interest shifting from mega-cap stocks to small-caps, which are starting to play catch-up.
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Geopolitical Issues: Market sentiment is slightly pressured by new tariff threats involving Greenland and European partners.
Full Economic Calendar Schedule
All times below have been converted to Western Indonesia Time to help you prepare.
| Day/Date (Jakarta Time) | Event | Forecast | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 19 Jan (All Day) | US Market Closed (MLK Day) | - | High |
| Wed, 21 Jan - 20:30 | U.S. President Trump Speaks | - | High |
| Thu, 22 Jan - 20:30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) | 4.3% | High |
| Thu, 22 Jan - 20:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 203K | Med |
| Thu, 22 Jan - 22:00 | Core PCE Price Index (YoY) | 2.7% | High |
| Fri, 23 Jan - 21:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | Med |
| Fri, 23 Jan - 21:45 | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.8 | Med |
Earnings Calendar
Q4 earnings season is heating up. Investor focus is shifting from banking to the tech and consumer goods sectors.
| Symbol | Company Name | EPS Forecast | Day/Date (Jakarta Time) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | $2.20 | Wednesday Morning (After Market) |
| $UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $2.54 | Wednesday Morning (After Market) |
| $MMM | 3M Company | $2.31 | Tuesday Night (Pre-Market) |
| $INTC | Intel Corporation | $0.45 | Friday Morning (After Market) |
| $PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | $1.70 | Friday Evening (Pre-Market) |
Analysis & Portfolio Impact
This week's data is crucial for determining medium-term trends. Don't just look at the numbers; understand the context.
US GDP: The Soft Landing Test
The GDP growth estimate of 4.3% is highly optimistic. If the actual number matches or exceeds this, The Fed might hold rates longer.
This could trigger a stronger US Dollar but put short-term pressure on the stock market. Conversely, a number below 3% could spark recession fears.
Sector Rotation & Tech
Big tech stocks are experiencing a natural pullback after a long rally. Keep an eye on the $NFLX report.
If Netflix fails to meet subscriber expectations, negative sentiment could spill over to other tech stocks. However, this might be an opportunity for undervalued stocks in the industrial sector like $MMM.
Consumer Staples Sector
The report from $PG will signal consumer purchasing power. Are consumers still accepting price hikes, or are they switching to cheaper alternatives?
If sales volume drops, it’s a warning sign for defensive stocks. We suggest keeping your portfolio diversified.
Ready to face this week's volatility? Top up your Gotrade account now and capture the market momentum.
