Gotrade News - Global oil and gas markets remain under stress through April 2026 with shortages spreading from crude to LNG. Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the supply gap could persist into 2027.
Key Takeaways
- The World Bank's risk scenario sees Brent oil at USD 95-115 per barrel if Middle East disruption persists.
- Around 900 million barrels of unproduced crude have been replaced by drawdowns of global stockpiles.
- China's April LNG imports are projected at an 8-year low of 3.5 million tons.
Sawan said roughly 900 million barrels of crude have not been produced in recent months, with the gap filled by inventory drawdowns. He made the remarks in a Bloomberg TV interview.
The World Bank projects Brent to average USD 86 per barrel through 2026 in its base case scenario. The view assumes the worst phase of supply disruption ends by May 2026.
A risk scenario puts Brent in the USD 95-115 range if Middle East tensions extend further. Brent surged from USD 72 to USD 118 per barrel in late March, the largest monthly jump on record.
Global oil supply fell by roughly 10 million barrels per day in March 2026, one of the largest shocks on record. The World Bank expects its global energy index to climb 24% this year.
Pressure has spread to Asian LNG markets as spot prices spiked on the back of Middle East conflict. China's April 2026 LNG imports are projected at just 3.5 million tons.
That figure is down 30% year over year and the lowest monthly level since April 2018. Asian LNG spot prices now trade around 70% above their pre-war levels.
China carried out no LNG re-exports in April, a sharp contrast to March's record 700,000 tons. The estimates draw on ship-tracking data from Kpler and Bloomberg.
The picture underscores how exposed energy markets remain to escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. Industrial buyers and energy investors will watch the timeline for supply normalization.
