Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
Gotrade News - Gold prices are holding their ground near the psychological $5,000 level this Thursday (Feb 19), caught in a tug-of-war between escalating geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainty. While thin liquidity from the Lunar New Year holiday is keeping volatility in check, the underlying sentiment remains tense as investors assess the next big catalyst.
The precious metal is currently trading sideways, digesting a massive 2% rally from the previous session. You need to pay attention to this consolidation phase, as bullion is signaling a potential breakout or breakdown depending on how the geopolitical landscape evolves over the next few days.
Key Takeaways:
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Escalating tensions between the US and Iran are fueling a strong "flight-to-safety" bid, keeping a floor under gold prices.
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Mixed signals from the latest Fed minutes have left the market guessing on rate cuts, capping gold's upside potential for now.
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Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of the US PCE inflation data, which will likely dictate the next major leg for the dollar and commodities.
According to market data reported by EconoTimes, spot gold is hovering around $4,971 per ounce, while US gold futures have slipped slightly to $4,991. This breather comes after gold briefly crossed the $5,000 mark earlier in the week, driven by investors hedging against global instability.
The primary driver keeping the bulls in the game is the intensifying friction in the Middle East. Market participants are closely watching the standoff between the US and Iran, specifically concerning maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled nuclear negotiations.
Reports from FXStreet highlight that US Vice President JD Vance recently stated Iran has failed to acknowledge key US demands. This diplomatic deadlock has raised fears that Washington might pivot to more aggressive measures if gaps aren't bridged within the two-week window, a scenario that naturally boosts traditional safe havens like gold.
However, the upside is being capped by a resilient US Dollar and mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve. The latest FOMC minutes revealed a clear divide among policymakers; while some are open to cuts later in the year, others signaled that further tightening isn't off the table if inflation proves sticky.
This "higher-for-longer" narrative on interest rates usually acts as kryptonite for non-yielding assets like gold. Rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is why we are seeing some profit-taking despite the geopolitical fear factor.
Liquidity is also a factor to consider right now. With major Asian markets offline for the Lunar New Year, trading volumes are thinner than usual. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets note that this period often creates a "soft patch" for gold prices, potentially opening a window for bargain hunting before full market participation returns.
For now, the smart money is in wait-and-see mode. All eyes are turning toward the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hot print could strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold, while a cool reading could reignite the rally back above $5,000.
That’s the market update worth watching today. Follow Gotrade News for timely coverage on US stocks, ETFs, and macro moves that shape market direction. For a structured starter guide, visit the Gotrade Blog to learn the basics and build your plan.
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Reference:
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EconoTimes, Gold Prices Hold Near $5,000 as Fed Outlook and Geopolitical Risks Shape Market Sentiment. Accessed on February 19, 2026
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FXStreet, Gold rises above $4,950 as US-Iran tensions boost safe-haven demand. Accessed on February 19, 2026
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CNBC, Harga Emas Antam Hari Ini Melonjak, Tembus Rp 2,9 Juta. Accessed on February 19, 2026
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