Gotrade News - Indonesia's rupiah hit an all-time low of 17,130 per US dollar at Wednesday's close (Apr 15). The currency weakened 0.12% and is expected to remain under pressure in today's trading session.
Key Takeaways
- Rupiah reached a record low of 17,130 and is projected to trade between 17,100-17,200 today
- The IMF cut Indonesia's growth forecast from 5.1% to 5.0% for 2026
- Strait of Hormuz closure and rising oil prices are the primary pressures on the exchange rate
Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong projects the rupiah will trade between 17,100-17,200 per dollar today. "The rupiah is expected to remain under pressure despite improving global sentiment," he said.
Weak domestic factors are leading investors to avoid the rupiah at this point. Volatility is being driven by shifting geopolitical conditions in the Middle East according to Leong.
Growth Forecasts Revised Downward
The IMF lowered Indonesia's growth projection from 5.1% to 5.0% for 2026. The World Bank also revised its estimate to 4.7%, down from its 4.8% projection in October 2025 as reported by RRI.
The Asian Development Bank projects stable growth of 5.2% for the 2026-2027 period. The IMF also expects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 due to Middle East conflict and trade barriers.
External Pressures Dominate
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary driver of rupiah weakness. Rising oil prices are pushing global inflation higher, keeping central banks inclined to maintain elevated rates longer according to analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi.
Geopolitical uncertainty is driving global investors toward safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar index is projected to trade with support at 97,000 and resistance at 100,900 in the week ahead.
Domestic demand and infrastructure spending continue to anchor Indonesia's economic stability. However external pressures from energy prices and global market sentiment still dominate the rupiah's near-term direction.
