Gotrade News - Crypto markets took a beating over the weekend after joint US-Israel military strikes on Iran rattled investor confidence across the board. Bitcoin briefly touched $68,196 before reversing course to around $65,300 by Sunday afternoon (03/02) in New York, shedding 2.1%.
Ether didn't fare much better, giving up its earlier gains to trade 2.3% lower at $1,912 according to Bloomberg. Total crypto market cap shrank by roughly $128 billion at one point, per CoinGecko data.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin spiked to $68,196 after Ayatollah Khamenei's death was confirmed, then reversed to $65,300 as broader uncertainty took hold
- Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $1 billion over three straight sessions last week and will be the key signal when US markets reopen Monday
- $1.9 billion in Bitcoin put options are stacked at the $60,000 strike, pointing to heavy demand for downside protection
Bitcoin went haywire the moment news of the joint military operation broke Saturday morning. Prices initially nosedived to around $63,000 before bouncing back as rumors of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death started circulating.
The spike to $68,196 came after Iranian officials formally confirmed his death. But the rally fizzled out fast as investors realized the escalation was only piling on more uncertainty rather than resolving it.
Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital, noted that the real price discovery won't happen until Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen. With missiles hitting Dubai and the risk of Strait of Hormuz closures on the table, Hughes stressed this is far from a contained event.
ETF Flows Will Call the Shots on Monday
Hughes added that Bitcoin ETF flows will be the single most important number to watch when trading resumes. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs on Coinbase and other exchanges pulled in $1 billion over three consecutive sessions.
If that inflow streak flips, Bitcoin could punch through below $63,000. That scenario is front and center for traders heading into Monday's open.
Derivatives Market Screams Caution
On the derivatives side, Deribit data shows $1.9 billion worth of Bitcoin put options piled up at the $60,000 strike price. That level has only been tested once this year, back on February 6.
Bitcoin's 200-week moving average sits around $58,000, widely seen by technical analysts as a crucial support floor. Meanwhile, call options are clustered around $75,000 on Deribit, suggesting some traders still have bullish bets in play for the medium term.
The conflict could also drag crypto down through a less obvious channel, namely oil prices. If the war disrupts energy shipping routes or production infrastructure, an oil price surge would stoke inflation expectations.
Rising inflation could force central banks to keep rates elevated or even tighten further. Historically, tighter liquidity conditions have been a headwind for speculative assets including crypto.
On the flip side, Richard Galvin from hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management argued that the US strikes were largely priced in already. According to Galvin, plenty of traders used the dip as a buying opportunity or to close out their short positions.
Still, the broader market consensus leans cautious at least until the trajectory of the conflict and policy responses become clearer. Over on Polymarket, $529 million in contracts were traded on the timing of the US strike on Iran, underscoring just how much attention this geopolitical escalation is commanding.
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Reference:
Bloomberg, Cryptocurrencies Under Pressure as Iran Strikes Stir Uncertainty. Accessed on March 2, 2026
News AZ, How will the Israel-US-Iran war reshape the cryptocurrency market. Accessed on March 2, 2026
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