Gotrade News - The Middle East crisis has rattled global energy markets again after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of LNG supply disruptions through 2027. Oil prices surged back to US$106 per barrel on Friday, April 24, 2026.
The IEA estimates that the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026 has removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply. Overall LNG output fell 8% year-on-year as exports from Qatar and the UAE collapsed.
- Brent briefly topped US$107 per barrel as US-Iran talks remain deadlocked
- Asian LNG spot prices neared US$21 per MMBtu, the highest since January 2023
- Indonesian consumer staples including Indofood CBP (ICBP) hit fresh lows on geopolitical pressure
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the supply shock is landing while global gas markets are already tight. That combination is pushing prices higher and raising energy-security risks across regions.
Asian spot LNG approached US$21 per MMBtu during the March 2026 volatility peak. European natural gas averaged around US$18 per MMBtu, the highest level since early 2023.
European gas demand fell about 4% year-on-year in March 2026, helped by stronger renewable power output. Asian importers turned to fuel switching and demand management to blunt the supply squeeze.
Oil prices climbed again after Pakistan-brokered peace talks broke down. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and continues to drive market uncertainty.
For Indonesia, the supply shock compounds a trade balance already strained by higher oil and LPG import costs. Jakarta has locked in 150 million barrels of Russian crude but still faces a coverage gap at domestic refineries.
Import-heavy consumer issuers are feeling the squeeze, with PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) printing a fresh low on geopolitical sentiment. Margin recovery for consumer producers could now slow further.
Domestic energy names in coal and gas are set to benefit from higher export prices. That upside could be partly offset by rising shipping costs and disruptions across regional sea lanes.
Markets will watch for follow-up statements from OPEC+ and any US strategic reserve policy shifts next week. Stagflation risk is back on the agenda for multi-asset investors.
