Tonight the market weighs Nvidia's post-earnings AI rally against the rate signal from Jackson Hole.
There is a clear tug-of-war heading into tonight's US session. The AI rally led by Nvidia is still running after Wednesday's earnings report. Against it, the Fed chair's keynote at Jackson Hole tonight could shift the path for interest rates.
Nvidia posted quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, and guided next quarter's revenue to $108 billion. That print lit a tech rally that carried into this morning's Asia session.
The counterweight is a hawkish tone. US inflation is still 3.4%, above the Fed's target, and the market is pricing roughly one-in-three odds of a September rate hike. All eyes are on the Jackson Hole podium tonight.
Tonight's Watchlist
| Stock | Movement | What to Watch |
|---|
| NVDA | Post-earnings, rally extends | Revenue $96.2B (+106% YoY), Q3 guide $108B. The gauge for whether the AI trade holds. |
| MU | Lifted by memory sentiment | Read-through from an AI memory shortage seen lasting through 2030. MU is the US-listed way to play it. |
| AMD | High beta | The AI-chip name that swings hardest on tonight's Jackson Hole tone. |
| PYPL | Deal premium deflates | The Advent and Stripe group dropped its PayPal pursuit (bid above $53B), so the takeover premium fades. |
| AFRM | Reported yesterday, record profit | Quarterly net income $1.62B, raised guidance, medium-term GMV growth target of 25%+. |
Tonight's Catalysts
Nvidia earnings afterglow
The Data Center segment contributed about $89 billion of that revenue, and management guided next quarter to $108 billion. The AI-chip rally that followed is the main driver of risk appetite tonight, and how Nvidia (NVDA) trades will measure whether the momentum lasts.
Jackson Hole and the rate path
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair at Jackson Hole tonight. With inflation at 3.4% and the market pricing roughly one-in-three odds of a September hike, a hawkish tone could pressure long-duration stocks such as the tech names. The focus is the Fed's signal on the direction of rates.
PayPal deal collapses
The Advent and Stripe consortium abandoned its bid for PayPal (PYPL), an offer worth more than $53 billion at $60.50 per share. PayPal's board had earlier called the bid inadequate. With the deal off, the premium that had lifted the stock may deflate tonight.
Pre-Market Pulse 📊
US futures point higher this morning. The Dow is up about 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each add around 0.4%. Beyond the watchlist, chip and memory names lead sentiment after news of AI memory capacity expansion, while fintech is in focus on the collapsed PayPal deal.
Macro Note 📝
Gold touched a three-month high on a softer dollar, the 10-year Treasury yield sits roughly flat near 4.69% ahead of Jackson Hole, and oil holds a second straight weekly gain after Washington's threat of sanctions on Iran.
Conclusion
Tonight is a contest between two big forces: the AI momentum powered by Nvidia and a possible hawkish tone from Jackson Hole. The chip rally gives reason for optimism, but the rate signal can shift risk appetite quickly.
For those watching, it comes down to two things: whether the chip names hold their gains, and how hawkish the Fed's keynote reads. Together they decide whether the market closes the week bold or cautious.
What stocks are you watching tonight?
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