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Oil nearing $100 and the Fed's next move are the two forces setting risk appetite into tonight's US session.
US futures are moving quietly this morning. A surge in oil is pressuring sentiment, but chip stocks are acting as a cushion that limits the downside.
The story centers on one tension. Oil has pushed to a six-week high and is closing in on $100 after a strike on a Saudi facility, while the market waits on US inflation data that will test the Fed's path. Energy and rate-sensitive tech are pulling in opposite directions tonight.
Slipped recently; the market is weighing whether the pullback is an opportunity or a pause in the AI rally
Tonight's Catalysts
Oil near $100 and the energy sector
Oil pushed to a six-week high after a strike on a Saudi facility, with Iran-US tensions adding a risk premium. Occidental (OXY) and ExxonMobil (XOM) are the names most tied to this theme.
US inflation data and the Fed's path
Gold dropped ahead of the US inflation release, a signal the market is recalculating the rate path. The oil spike briefly lifted rate-hike bets, but those odds swung back toward a coin-flip after more dovish commentary from a Fed official. Tonight's inflation data is the tiebreaker, and rate-sensitive tech is the most exposed.
The AI chip rally gets tested
Semiconductors are the bright spot offsetting pressure from oil. AMD (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) are firmer, while Broadcom (AVGO) has been choppier. The market is weighing whether Broadcom's weakness is a buying opportunity or a sign the rally is losing steam.
Nasdaq-100 futures are slightly higher as chip strength offsets the drag from oil, while the S&P 500 and Dow sit flatter. Energy names are leading, though OXY is giving back part of its gains on profit-taking.
Macro Note 📝
Brent is near a six-week high above $98, making oil the wild card for inflation into the US data. Gold softened as rate expectations firmed then eased. Keep an eye on the US dollar and Treasury yields as direction-setters.
Conclusion
Tonight is a contest of two styles: oil-driven inflation pressure against the strength of chip demand. The point is not to guess the direction, but to know where the sensitivity sits, energy on one side and rate-sensitive tech on the other.
Watch the US inflation data as the main trigger. A hot print could pressure rate-sensitive names; a cool one gives the chip rally more room. What stocks are you watching tonight?
Want to see how these names move in real time? Check Watchlist on Gotrade and set your strategy before the US session opens.
Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
M. Alfathan Rahman is a content writer with over 3 years of experience developing digital content strategies across various industries, including fintech. He has experience producing content for tax-related websites and financial education platforms registered with Kominfo (Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Informatics). His focus areas include data research, and crafting financial articles that are informative, accurate, and accessible to investors of all experience levels.
