Gotrade News - The Indonesian rupiah is weakening against the US dollar, reaching IDR 16,981 at the start of this week. External factors such as rising crude oil prices and US monetary policy have compounded the pressure on the rupiah.
- Global crude oil price surge affects rupiah stability.
- High US interest rate expectations strengthen the dollar, weakening the rupiah.
- Bank Indonesia is expected to stand by for intervention to maintain stability.
On the opening of trade on Monday (March 30, 2026), the rupiah was sold at IDR 16,986 per US dollar, marking a 0.03% decline from the previous Friday’s close. This depreciation reflects market conditions influenced by the oil price spike and the Federal Reserve's policy sentiment.
Lukman Leong, an analyst from Doo Financial Futures, explained that the increase in WTI oil prices, surpassing 103 US dollars per barrel, is a major factor. Distribution disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbate the global oil supply situation, threatening inflation.
The US dollar index continues to strengthen, reflecting market expectations of high interest rate policies by The Fed. Lukman noted that investors tend to believe The Fed will either hold or increase rates, rather than cutting them this year.
The pressure on the rupiah is predicted to continue in the short term. Lukman mentioned a forecasted price movement range from IDR 16,950 to IDR 17,050 per US dollar. If the psychological level of IDR 17,000 is reached, Bank Indonesia is expected to initiate an intervention strategy.
As a stability measure, BI has begun implementing new monetary operation instruments, including forex repo transactions with underlying Bank Indonesia Foreign Exchange Securities (SVBI) and Bank Indonesia Foreign Exchange-Sukuk (SUVBI).
This depreciation provides significant signals for market participants to consider the impact of energy prices and global monetary policy. Preventive measures from monetary authorities are needed to keep volatility under control.
Reference:
- Liputan6, Update Kurs Dolar Hari Ini 30 Maret 2026: Rupiah Nyaris Rp 17.000. Accessed on March 30, 2026
- MetroTV, Rupiah Senin Pagi Turun Tipis ke Rp16.989. Accessed on March 30, 2026
- RRI, Dibuka Melemah, Rupiah Makin Dekati Level Psikologis Rp17.000 per Dolar AS. Accessed on March 30, 2026
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