Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
Gotrade News - The Rupiah scored some gains in the Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDF) market while domestic exchanges were closed for the Lunar New Year. This positive move on Monday (Feb 16) was triggered by US inflation data coming in cooler than the market expected.
This momentum gives the Garuda currency a bit of breathing room amidst the dollar pressure we've seen over the last few weeks. You should keep an eye on these levels as an early signal before domestic markets fully reopen and react to Bank Indonesia's upcoming moves.
Key Takeaways
-
The Rupiah strengthened in the NDF market to around Rp16,839 per USD thanks to softening US inflation.
-
This gain is tactical and temporary due to thin trading volumes during the Asian market holiday.
-
Market focus now shifts to Bank Indonesia's interest rate decision to maintain exchange rate stability.
The latest US inflation print showed just a 0.2 percent monthly rise, coming in lower than initial predictions. The annual figure also dropped to 2.4 percent, signaling that price pressures in the States are finally starting to ease off.
Global financial markets reacted positively right away, as this strengthens hopes for a Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields took a dip, making the greenback look a little less attractive in the short term.
Lukman, a currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, noted that the Rupiah has the potential to move between Rp16,750 and Rp16,900 per US dollar. According to him, the drop in US inflation is due to tariff impacts starting to fade from consumer price components.
However, we can't call this a long-term trend reversal for the Garuda currency just yet. Market movements right now are leaning more technical due to thin liquidity during the holiday period across Asia.
Global investors are still in "wait and see" mode regarding the Fed's next monetary policy steps. US central bank officials have emphasized that inflation isn't fully back to the ideal target, even though the window for easing is open.
Domestic sentiment is still casting a shadow over the Rupiah's movement, despite the fresh breeze from external factors. The market is still weighing the risks of a widening state budget deficit and recent concerns surrounding the central bank's independence.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) even pushed for a larger float, adding to the weight of negative sentiment. This has made the gains in emerging market currencies, including the Rupiah, look pretty selective and limited.
This week is going to be a crucial moment as Bank Indonesia is scheduled to announce its benchmark interest rate. Market consensus expects BI to hold the rate at 4.75 percent to keep the exchange rate stable.
This move is seen as necessary to reaffirm BI's independence in the eyes of foreign investors amidst global uncertainty. The decision will be the confirmation of whether this holiday rally can stick or if the pressure is about to return.
That’s the market update worth watching today. Follow Gotrade News for timely coverage on US stocks, ETFs, and macro moves that shape market direction. For a structured starter guide, visit the Gotrade Blog to learn the basics and build your plan.
If you want to act on this news, track price moves and review your portfolio in the Gotrade app. You can start investing in US stocks and ETFs with $1, then align your next steps with your goals and risk profile. Download and open the Gotrade app now!
Reference:
-
Antara News, Rupiah pada Senin pagi menguat jadi Rp16.831 per dolar AS. Accessed on February 16, 2026
-
Bloomberg Technoz, Rupiah Menguat di Pasar NDF Kala Pasar Spot Libur Hari Ini. Accessed on February 16, 2026
-
Metro TV, Rupiah Menguat Tipis ke Rp16.827 per USD. Accessed on February 16, 2026
-
Featured Image: Shutterstock
