Gotrade News - Gotrade News – The rupiah exchange rate closed near IDR 17,000 per USD on Friday (03/27/2026). The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran is the main driver behind the rupiah's depreciation.
- Global uncertainty pressures the rupiah.
- High inflation in the US exacerbates the situation.
- Lebaran's impact on economic growth is limited.
This Middle East conflict escalates, impacting global energy markets. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz further amplifies the pressure. Negative sentiment from these developments continues to burden the rupiah.
US President Donald Trump mentioned progress in negotiations with Iran. However, deploying thousands of troops to the Middle East raises further uncertainty. The proposed peace deal is seen as one-sided by Iran.
Global oil supply restrictions have reduced output by 11 million barrels per day. This crisis is described as worse than the oil shock of the 1970s, increasing inflation in the United States.
The high inflation sentiment influences US monetary policy. Initially, there were expectations of two rate cuts this year; however, this has changed. Now, a 12 basis point tightening by the Fed is anticipated, putting pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupiah.
The Eid al-Fitr celebration in 2026 is expected to be a driving force for domestic economic growth. However, its impact is limited compared to previous years.
The government projects a 5.4% economic growth rate for the first quarter of 2026. This figure is slightly below the target set.
Government spending is considered a potential booster for the national economy, focusing on priority programs and social assistance.
Reference:
- Liputan6, Rupiah Dekati 17.000 terhadap Dolar AS Hari Ini 27 Maret 2026. Accessed on March 27, 2026
- MetroTV, Rupiah Jumat Sore Diperdagangkan ke Level Rp16.979/USD. Accessed on March 27, 2026
- Berita Satu, Rupiah Jumat 27 Maret Ambruk Dekati Level Rp 17.000 Per Dolar AS. Accessed on March 27, 2026
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