Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
Jakarta, Gotrade News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is finally dropping the combined employment reports for October and November this week after the government shutdown. This creates a critical data gap, leaving investors and The Fed struggling to assess the economy's true health.
Key Takeaways
- The US government shutdown caused October's unemployment data to go missing for the first time since 1948.
- The October CPI report was also completely scrapped because field surveys couldn't happen.
- This data uncertainty could spike market volatility as The Fed loses its monetary policy compass.
The Impact of the Data Void
The household survey to calculate October's unemployment rate wasn't conducted at all due to the prolonged shutdown. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October was also canceled since field agents couldn't visit retail stores.
The BLS will merge October's nonfarm payroll data into November's report, even though the main report was scrapped. According to Reuters, the establishment survey continued electronically, so specific payroll data can still be calculated.
October's payroll numbers are likely distorted by the exit of over 150,000 federal employees who took early retirement offers. Reuters notes this move was part of President Donald Trump's push to significantly shrink the government's footprint.
Policy Challenges and Market Jitters
Investors need to brace for market volatility since the government won't publish core inflation data for October. The Fed is essentially flying blind without this crucial indicator to determine interest rate direction amidst global uncertainty.
Delayed price data collection risks skewing November's inflation figures lower than what's actually happening on the ground. According to analysis from The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., this late data collection could trigger unnatural price volatility.
Reference:
- Reuters, Explainer: Delayed US employment, CPI reports are due this week, with many gaps. Accessed on December 16, 2025
- Featured Image: Shutterstock
Disclaimer
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