TSMC just delivered a record Q2 and strengthened the case for AI-chip demand. Tonight, Netflix becomes the next earnings test after the close.
Wall Street closed Wednesday (Jul 15) in the green. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,572.40, while the Nasdaq gained 0.6% to 26,269.23. The market was supported by solid earnings and a cooler-than-expected US producer inflation report.
Focus now shifts to two major catalysts. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has already reported record Q2 results, while Netflix (NFLX) reports after the market close. TSMC is a key read on the AI supply chain, while Netflix will test whether investors are still willing to pay a premium for the streaming, ads, and margin story.
Tonight's Watchlist 📈
| Stock | Movement | What to Watch |
|---|
| TSM | Up roughly 6-7% pre-market after a record Q2 | Whether AI chip leadership holds and the read on second-half capex guidance |
| NFLX | Near record highs into the post-close print | Ad revenue toward the $3 billion run-rate and membership above 325 million |
| NVDA | Higher pre-market on the TSMC read-through | Confirmation of AI GPU demand and the Nokia AI-RAN partnership |
| AMD | Gaining pre-market with the chip complex | Whether TSMC's beat lifts the broader chip designers |
| ASML | Up 3.4% Wednesday (15/07) after a beat and raised guidance | AI-driven capacity expansion underpinning equipment demand |
Tonight's Catalysts 🧨
TSMC delivers record Q2
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported Q2 revenue of US$40.20 billion, up 33.7% year over year in US dollar terms. Net income and EPS both rose 77.4% year over year, while gross margin reached 67.7%.
The numbers matter because TSMC sits at the center of the global AI supply chain. It manufactures chips for many major players, including Nvidia and Apple. When TSMC reports strong results, the market reads it as a signal that demand for AI chips, advanced packaging, and high-performance computing capacity is still holding up.
More importantly, TSMC also gave strong Q3 guidance, with revenue expected between US$44.6 billion and US$45.8 billion. The company also raised its annual capex plan to US$60 billion to US$64 billion. That suggests AI capacity expansion has not slowed yet.
Netflix Tests Earnings Sentiment Tonight
Netflix reports Q2 results after the market close. Consensus expects revenue of around US$12.58 billion, with EPS of around US$0.79.
The market will not only focus on the headline numbers. Investors will be watching whether the ads business continues to scale, whether engagement remains healthy, and whether margins can hold up as streaming competition stays intense.
Netflix does not enter this report with low expectations. After being a market favorite, the stock has had a tougher run this year. That means a good report may not be enough. The market wants to see whether management can give investors a fresh reason to rebuild confidence in long-term growth.
Ripple effects for Nvidia, AMD, and ASML
TSMC’s results send a positive signal to the AI supply chain. Nvidia and AMD are in focus because demand for AI chips ultimately depends on manufacturing capacity, packaging, and advanced nodes handled by TSMC.
ASML also remains important in this chain. The company has raised its 2026 guidance as demand for advanced lithography tools remains strong. That shows the AI story is not only about chip designers. It also includes the companies providing the machines, capacity, and production infrastructure behind the boom.
Pre-Market Pulse 📊
US futures are pointing higher, with semiconductor stocks leading pre-market moves after TSMC’s results. The market will watch whether momentum carries into NVDA, AMD, ASML, and the broader chip sector once trading opens.
Outside chips, Netflix is the main catalyst after the close. If results and guidance are strong, earnings sentiment could stay positive. If the market is disappointed, growth and consumer-tech names may turn more selective again.
Macro Note 📝
Cooler US PPI data helped ease inflation concerns and kept yields calmer. That backdrop supports risk assets, especially growth and technology stocks.
Oil still needs attention. WTI remains elevated as Strait of Hormuz tensions continue, which means energy-driven inflation risk has not fully disappeared. For technology stocks, yields, inflation, and oil remain important background factors.
Conclusion
Tonight brings two major tests. TSMC has already signaled that AI-chip demand is not slowing, and the market now waits to see whether Netflix can improve sentiment toward streaming and consumer tech.
For investors, the question is not only who beats earnings. The more important issue is whether the catalyst can last: whether AI capex keeps moving, whether cloud and chip demand stay strong, and whether Netflix can show enough growth to justify its valuation.
Keep your watchlist focused on names with clear catalysts in a busy earnings session like this.
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