Gotrade News - This is shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of early May. Investors must track the April Non-Farm Payrolls report plus earnings from AMD, Palantir, Disney, Uber, and Coinbase.
US markets just closed April with the strongest monthly performance since 2020. This week brings several data points that could shake momentum, including ISM Services PMI and ADP.
- April Non-Farm Payrolls drops Friday, consensus expects 49,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%.
- AMD, Palantir, Disney, Uber, and Coinbase all report earnings this week.
- Markets enter May at record highs, but breadth has narrowed to dotcom-era levels.
This Week's Economic Agenda
On Tuesday May 5 at 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Services PMI for April releases. The March print fell to 54.0 from 56.1 in February, so watch closely whether services keeps slowing.
Early week also brings JOLTS and ADP, two important previews for NFP. Options markets are already pricing in a soft NFP, so an upside surprise would be a clear positive catalyst.
Friday May 8 is the main event. Consensus expects:
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 49,000 jobs added, well below the 12-month average.
- Unemployment Rate: holding at 4.3%, no change from March.
- Average Hourly Earnings: a key gauge of wage pressure and core inflation.
The Fed just held its FOMC meeting on April 28-29 and kept rates at 3.5-3.75%. The notable detail: four dissents, the highest in over three decades.
Three members voted to hold but rejected adding an easing bias to the statement. One member voted to cut 25 bps, a strong signal of internal Fed division.
Markets price the Fed staying on hold through mid-year. The next FOMC is on June 16-17, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Check the full schedule on the Gotrade Economic Calendar for accurate release times in your timezone.
Stocks to Watch
Q1 2026 earnings season is past the halfway mark. About 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 84% beating EPS estimates and an aggregate 20.7% above consensus.
This week brings 126 S&P 500 reports, including 2 Dow 30 members. Five names sit at the center of attention.
Monday May 4: Palantir (PLTR) reports after the close. Shares trade near $143 going into earnings, carrying a steep premium valuation.
Market focus is on commercial Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) contract growth and enterprise AI adoption pace. Expectations are high, so even a small miss can trigger a sharp sell-off.
Tuesday May 5: AMD reports after the close. Consensus expects EPS of $1.29 (+34.4% YoY) on revenue of $9.89 billion (+33.0% YoY).
AMD has rallied 88% since early March before pulling back to $314. The market wants to see MI300X traction and how much Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) capacity is being allocated to Instinct.
Tuesday also brings Pfizer (PFE) before the open, plus Rivian (RIVN), Shopify (SHOP), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) after the close.
Wednesday May 6 takes center stage. Disney (DIS) and Uber (UBER) both report before the open.
Specific items to watch:
- Disney: Disney+ subscriber count and parks/experiences segment margin.
- Uber: gross bookings (guidance of $52-$53.5 billion) and adjusted EBITDA of $2.37-$2.47 billion.
- Marriott (MAR): travel demand against weakening Consumer Sentiment.
- ARM Holdings (ARM): licensing growth and royalty rate trajectory.
- DoorDash (DASH): order volume and gig-economy margin.
Thursday May 7: Coinbase (COIN) reports after the close. The Q1 Bitcoin rally should provide a meaningful boost to trading volume and revenue.
Airbnb (ABNB) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) also report the same day. ABNB focus: Q2 night bookings and US macro impact on travel demand.
Market Sentiment
Markets enter the week with very strong momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed April with their best monthly performance since 2020.
The Nasdaq Composite closed May 1 at a record 25,114.44. The Dow Jones also notched its best month since November 2024.
However, one data point keeps us cautious: market breadth, or the share of stocks participating in the rally, has dropped to its narrowest level since the dotcom era.
That means index gains are concentrated in a handful of names, especially mega-cap AI like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). This is typically a warning sign before a correction.
Wall Street projects S&P 500 EPS growth of 19.7% in 2026, accelerating from 14% in 2025. Most of that growth is being driven by AI infrastructure spending.
Three main risks are on our radar this week:
- The lingering Iran conflict and its effect on oil prices.
- AI capex potentially failing to deliver the ROI markets are pricing in.
- Fed funds futures pricing close to zero rate cuts through year-end.
Downside scenario to plan for: a sharp NFP miss (below 30,000) plus disappointing AMD or Palantir results. That combination could trigger a 3-5% Nasdaq correction.
Upside scenario: a solid NFP plus AMD and Disney beats could push the S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs by next week.
Our take for the week: don't chase the AI rally that is already overstretched. Wait for earnings confirmation before adding positions in names that have rallied hard.
Volatility will spike Tuesday evening (AMD), Wednesday morning (Disney + Uber), and Friday morning (NFP). Short-term traders should set tight stops.
For long-term investors, watch the dispersion in earnings outcomes. AI enablers with real revenue growth remain attractive, but AI spenders without ROI will keep getting punished.
Sources
CNBC, Stock market next week: Outlook for May 4-8, 2026, 2026
CNBC, Earnings playbook: Palantir and Advanced Micro Devices usher in the next week of reports, 2026
Globe and Mail, Wall Street's week ahead: U.S. stocks rally could find fuel in earnings, jobs data amid surging oil prices, 2026
Federal Reserve, FOMC Statement April 29, 2026, 2026
