Revenue vs Earnings: What Drives Stock Prices?

Revenue vs Earnings: What Drives Stock Prices?

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Revenue and earnings are the two most-watched numbers in every earnings report. Both measure a company's financial performance, but they capture different things.

Understanding which metric matters more, and when, helps investors interpret stock price reactions and make better valuation decisions.

Revenue Explained

Revenue is the total amount of money a company generates from selling its products or services before any expenses are deducted. It sits at the top of the income statement, which is why it is often called the "top line."

Revenue growth signals demand. When revenue increases, it means customers are buying more, the company is expanding, or pricing power is improving. Declining revenue indicates weakening demand or competitive pressure.

However, revenue says nothing about profitability. A company can grow revenue rapidly while losing money on every sale.

Earnings Explained

Earnings represent the profit remaining after all expenses have been subtracted from revenue, including cost of goods sold, operating expenses, interest, and taxes. Earnings appear at the bottom of the income statement, making them the "bottom line."

Earnings per share (EPS) is the most common way earnings are reported. It divides net income by shares outstanding, showing how much profit is attributable to each share.

Earnings directly connect to valuation. The P/E ratio, one of the most widely used metrics, divides stock price by EPS. Higher earnings generally support higher stock prices, while declining earnings put downward pressure on valuations.

Earnings quality matters as much as the number itself. Consistent earnings from core operations are more valuable than one-time gains from asset sales or accounting adjustments.

Which Metric Matters More

The honest answer is that both matter, but markets weight them differently depending on context.

When revenue dominates

For high-growth companies that are not yet profitable, revenue is the primary metric. If a company is growing revenue at 40% per year, the market may tolerate losses because it believes scale will eventually produce earnings.

In these cases, investors often use the price-to-sales ratio instead of P/E. Revenue trajectory becomes the main driver of stock price movements.

When earnings dominate

For mature companies with established business models, earnings are what matter most. Revenue growth of 5% means little if margins are compressing and earnings are declining.

In sectors like banking, utilities, and consumer staples, earnings stability and dividend sustainability are the primary valuation drivers. Revenue growth is secondary to operating margin expansion.

When both move together

The strongest stock price reactions occur when revenue and earnings beat expectations simultaneously. This signals growth combined with improving profitability, the combination that supports sustained valuation expansion.

Growth at Different Company Stages

The relative importance of revenue versus earnings shifts as companies mature through different stages.

Early-stage companies prioritize revenue growth above all else. They invest heavily in customer acquisition and market expansion, deliberately deferring profitability. Investors evaluate them on revenue growth rate, customer metrics, and total addressable market.

Mid-stage companies face a transition. The market begins expecting a path to profitability. Investors want to see gross margins improving and operating losses narrowing. Companies that continue burning cash without margin improvement often see their stocks rerated lower.

Mature companies are judged primarily on earnings power. What matters is how efficiently the company converts revenue into profit and sustains profitability through economic cycles. Value investors particularly focus on earnings consistency at this stage.

Understanding where a company sits in its lifecycle helps investors know which metric to prioritize.

Reading Growth in Earnings Reports

Earnings reports reveal both revenue and earnings in a single release, but the relationship between the two tells the real story.

Revenue beat with earnings miss often means costs are rising faster than sales. This can be acceptable for growth stocks investing in future capacity, but concerning for mature businesses.

Revenue miss with earnings beat usually signals aggressive cost-cutting. While this can sustain earnings short-term, persistent revenue declines eventually overwhelm even the most disciplined cost management.

Both beat expectations and this is the most bullish scenario, indicating healthy demand growth combined with operational efficiency.

Both miss expectations and this triggers the sharpest negative reactions, raising questions about the company's competitive position on both fronts.

Beyond headline numbers, pay attention to forward guidance. Markets often react more to management's outlook than to the reported quarter, because stock prices are forward-looking.

Conclusion

Revenue measures scale and growth trajectory, while earnings measure profitability and efficiency. Both drive stock prices, but their relative importance depends on company stage, sector, and investor expectations.

For early-stage companies, revenue growth is the primary signal. For mature businesses, earnings power matters most. The strongest cases are built when both metrics move in the right direction simultaneously.

FAQ

What is the difference between revenue and earnings?

Revenue is the total money a company generates from sales before expenses. Earnings are the profit remaining after all costs, taxes, and interest are deducted.

Which matters more for stock prices?

It depends on the company's stage. Revenue matters more for high-growth companies not yet profitable, while earnings matter more for mature, established businesses.

Can a company have high revenue but low earnings?

Yes. A company with high revenue but thin margins or heavy expenses can report low or negative earnings. This is common in early-stage and rapidly expanding businesses.

References

Disclaimer

Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.


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