Wall Street closed mixed on Monday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.07% to 7,403.05, the Nasdaq fell 0.51% to 26,090.73, and the Dow Jones rose 0.32% to 49,686.12.
The tape split ahead of Nvidia's earnings later this week. Tech sold off as investors trimmed into the print, while the Dow held up on defensives. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.60%, close to a one-year high.
Two themes set the tone tonight: the setup into Nvidia (NVDA) and Trump's pause on the Iran strike, which eased oil. WSJ reports Google (GOOGL) and Blackstone (BX) are exploring an AI cloud business using in-house chips, adding another layer to the GPU and hyperscaler story.
Tonight's Watchlist 📈
| Stock | Movement | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Flat into earnings | Earnings are this week's pivot. Focus: data center growth, margin guide, China commentary. Hold into the print. |
| GOOGL | Held back | AI cloud JV with Blackstone using in-house chips. Signal that Google's AI capex stays aggressive. Watch. |
| BX | Follows the tape | Financing side of the AI cloud JV with Google. New angle into AI infrastructure exposure. Watch. |
| AMD | Volatile week | Read-through from Nvidia. Morgan Stanley cut Applied Materials, weighing on semis sentiment. Hold. |
| AVGO | Sideways | Hyperscaler capex remains central to the thesis. Read-across from the Nvidia print. Hold. |
Tonight's Catalysts 🧨
- Setup into Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. The print is the pivot for AI sentiment all week. Key focus: data center numbers, gross margin guide, and China commentary. Pre-print volatility can lift.
- Google and Blackstone AI cloud JV. GOOGL and BX are exploring a new AI cloud business built on Google's in-house chips. Read-through: hyperscaler AI capex stays aggressive, with more direct competition to GPU vendors.
- Trump paused the Iran strike, oil eased. Brent fell 1.42% to $107.71. Asia traded mixed, bonds recovered. Energy could see rotational pressure if de-escalation holds.
Pre-Market Pulse 📊
US futures are mixed into the open. Semis remain pressured after Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Applied Materials (PT $502). Home Depot reports before the bell, giving an early read on US consumer demand against a high-rate backdrop.
Macro Note 📝
The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.60%, close to a one-year high. Geopolitical tension and energy-driven inflation remain the macro overhang. Japan's economy grew faster than expected, opening the door for a BOJ rate hike. The yen firmed, and emerging Asia flows are worth watching. The rupiah closed near Rp 17,700 per US dollar.
Tonight's session is driven by two narratives: the setup into Nvidia's earnings that anchors AI sentiment, and the Iran pause that has eased oil. Home Depot pre-market is the tactical catalyst for a read on the US consumer.
For investors actively repositioning, the notes are simple: NVDA into the print can be volatile, the Google-Blackstone JV adds optionality on the hyperscaler side, and softer oil leaves room for limited risk-on if de-escalation holds.
What stocks are you watching tonight?
