AI Capex and Bubble Fears (Meta, Alphabet, Anthropic IPO, Shiller P/E)

M Alfathan RahmanM Alfathan RahmanHendrie Saputra
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AI Capex and Bubble Fears (Meta, Alphabet, Anthropic IPO, Shiller P/E)

Summary

  • Anthropic filed its S-1 on Oct. 26 to list on the Nasdaq as ANT, with its share count and price range not yet determined.
  • Results from backers Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon added to AI spending worries, CNBC reported, as Alphabet posted negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion.
  • S&P Global Ratings revised Meta's outlook to negative over AI spending, while the S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio closed at 40.13 on Oct. 30, per Multpl.

Gotrade News - Anthropic's IPO has no date or price range yet: the AI lab filed its S-1 on Oct. 26 to list on the Nasdaq as ANT, the company said. CNBC reported Oct. 31 that results from backers Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) added to AI spending worries, making the path bumpier.

The pressure reaches beyond Anthropic's backers. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Meta Platforms (META) to negative from stable on Oct. 30 over heavy AI spending, as reported by The Next Web, while the S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio closed at 40.13 that day, according to Multpl data.

The table below sets out the IPO's status and terms as stated in Anthropic's Oct. 26 announcement and CNBC's coverage of the filing.

Read also: AI Megacap Earnings Hangover (Alphabet, Palantir, Amazon)
ItemDetail
StatusS-1 filed with the SEC, not yet effective
Public filing dateOct. 26, 2026, after a confidential filing in June
Expected listing dateNot announced
Exchange and tickerNasdaq Global Select Market, ANT
Security offeredClass A common stock
Price range and shares offeredNot yet determined
UnderwritersGoldman Sachs (lead left), Morgan Stanley and about 20 other banks
Last private valuation$965 billion, in a May 2026 round that raised $65 billion
Lock-up expiries27, 48, 62 and 76 days after the IPO

GOOGL, AMZN and META Market Data

TickerCloseDaily change
GOOGL$279.84-1.40%
AMZN$240.35-1.41%
META$614.99-1.53%

Regular-session close on October 30, 2026, New York time. Prices and changes: Yahoo Finance, cross-checked against the closing price on Nasdaq.com.

When Is the Anthropic IPO Date?

Anthropic has not announced an IPO date, and its registration statement is filed but not yet effective, according to the company's announcement. CNBC reported on Oct. 31 that the company is expected to pursue a potentially record-setting initial public offering "in the coming weeks," with investors still waiting for its third-quarter financials.

Other listings have stalled. Per CNBC, the IPO market has been largely frozen since SpaceX's record offering in June, and Oura, Firmus and SK Hynix's Solidigm unit have postponed or abandoned their plans. "Anthropic is the IPO market at this point," Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman told CNBC.

Read also: EverQuote Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $218.1 Million

What Is Anthropic Worth?

Anthropic has not disclosed an IPO valuation, and its share count and price range are not yet determined, according to the company. CNBC reported that its May 2026 funding round raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation.

The prospectus shows revenue of $16.29 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 1,304% from $1.16 billion a year earlier, as reported by CNBC. The net loss reached $80.7 billion, of which about $72 billion came from accounting charges tied to changes in the value of convertible notes.

Anthropic also disclosed about $417 billion in future payments to compute providers, plus $125 billion to $150 billion more for capacity delivered from 2028 to 2031.

Wharton professor David Hsu told CNBC "It's a great technology," while questioning how it translates into a viable business.

Where Will Anthropic Stock Trade?

Anthropic plans to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley named as underwriters, according to its S-1 announcement.

Two of its backers already trade publicly: per CNBC, Amazon has invested $13 billion since 2023, with its stake capped at 12% and its shares nonvoting, while Google holds an option to buy up to $10 billion of Class N stock at the IPO price.

The same companies supply much of its computing power. CNBC tallied $110 billion of commitments on Amazon's Trainium chips through 2036 and $114.5 billion on Google's TPUs through 2033, alongside at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft.

Big Tech 2026 Capex Guidance After Q3 Earnings

Days after the prospectus landed, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reported quarterly results that added to investor worries about AI infrastructure spending, according to CNBC. The table below compiles 2026 capex guidance from Meta's Oct. 21 earnings release and CNBC's Oct. 31 report.

Company2026 capex guidanceLatest change
Meta Platforms$135 billion to $145 billion, including finance-lease principalRange narrowed from $130 billion to $145 billion
AlphabetUp to $205 billionGuidance kept
AmazonAbout $220 billionReiterated
Microsoft$170 billionLowered from $175 billion

Alphabet reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, and its shares fell almost 13% on Thursday, Oct. 29, their worst day ever, per CNBC. Amazon's third-quarter report showed a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow, an outflow of $42.4 billion over the trailing 12 months, while Microsoft kept positive free cash flow of $18.6 billion and announced a $25 billion bond offering.

S&P Shifts Meta (META) Outlook to Negative

According to Meta's earnings release, third-quarter capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, reached $34.91 billion, leaving free cash flow at negative $2.12 billion. Meta has not given a 2027 figure, but said it expects to keep investing aggressively in its core business and AI initiatives.

S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on Meta's AA- rating to negative from stable on Oct. 30, as reported by The Next Web. The agency expects leverage to rise above 1.0x as soon as 2027, from about 0.1x last year, which would breach the limit for the current rating, and said Meta's ability to monetize its AI investments is "more limited than that of its peers."

The Next Web noted that, unlike Amazon, Microsoft and Google, Meta has no cloud business that rents out computing power. Meta spokesperson Kamran Mumtaz said, "We respectfully disagree with S&P's assertion about Meta's AI monetization capabilities," adding that the company sees "significant product and business opportunities ahead of us, supporting our very strong credit profile."

Shiller CAPE at 40.13, Near Its December 1999 Peak

The S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which compares prices with 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, closed at 40.13 on Friday, Oct. 30, according to Multpl. That sits below the record of 44.19 set in December 1999 but far above the long-run mean of 17.44.

Tech stocks slid the same day. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% on Friday, its first three-week losing streak since March, as Nvidia and other chip stocks declined after Intel issued a weak forecast, CNBC reported.

BTIG managing director Jonathan Krinsky described the tech earnings fallout as "The Techsas Chainsaw Massacre," and The Next Web reported the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% over the week, briefly entering correction territory.

This article is for education and information only and is not investment advice. Investment decisions are yours to make after your own research.

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Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.


M Alfathan Rahman
Written by
M Alfathan Rahman
M. Alfathan Rahman is a content writer with over 3 years of experience developing digital content strategies across various industries, including fintech. He has experience producing content for tax-related websites and financial education platforms. His focus areas include data research, and crafting financial articles that are informative, accurate, and accessible to investors of all experience levels.
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Hendrie Saputra
Reviewed by
Hendrie Saputra
Expert Reviewer
Hendrie Saputra holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a concentration in Business Risk & Finance, along with professional experience in finance, marketing, and project management. He is experienced in analyzing market data and developing research-driven business strategies.
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