Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
The stock market is entering a holiday week with a main focus on this week's US stock market economic calendar, which is front-loaded at the start of the week.
Trading volume is predicted to be extremely thin ahead of the Christmas holiday, but volatility is still lurking with the release of crucial data like PCE Inflation and GDP.
Investors are gearing up for the seasonal "Santa Claus Rally" phenomenon amidst a shortened trading schedule. With the market closing early on Wednesday and fully closed on Thursday, all eyes are on the economic data released on Monday and Tuesday to determine the direction of year-end portfolios for 2025.
Market Highlights This Week (Key Takeaways)
- PCE Inflation Release (Monday): The Fed's favorite inflation data will be the final validation for investors predicting rate cuts in 2026. A number lower than predicted will strengthen the soft landing narrative.
- US GDP Q3 (Tuesday): The final revision of US economic growth will be released. Solid data will keep market optimism alive to avoid a recession.
- Special Christmas Trading Hours: Note that the US stock market will have an Early Close on Wednesday (Dec 24) at 1:00 PM EST (01:00 WIB Thursday morning) and remain Closed on Thursday (Dec 25) for Christmas. Markets reopen normally on Friday (Dec 26).
Complete Economic Calendar Schedule
Here is the schedule of important economic data you need to watch this week. Times have been converted to WIB (Western Indonesia Time).
| Time | Cur. | Imp. | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, December 22, 2025 | |||||
| 22:00 | USD | High | Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) | 0.2% | |
| 22:00 | USD | High | Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct) | 2.8% | |
| Tuesday, December 23, 2025 | |||||
| 20:30 | USD | High | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) | 0.5% | |
| 20:30 | USD | High | GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 22:00 | USD | High | CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) | 91.7 | 88.7 |
| Wednesday, December 24, 2025 | |||||
| All Day | USD | Holiday | United States - Christmas - Early close at 13:00 | - | - |
| 03:01 | USD | High | New Home Sales (Sep) | 1K | |
| 03:02 | USD | High | New Home Sales (Oct) | ||
| 03:03 | USD | High | New Home Sales (Nov) | ||
| 20:30 | USD | High | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) | 0.5% | |
| 20:30 | USD | High | Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 224K |
| 22:30 | USD | High | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.274M | |
| Thursday, December 25, 2025 | |||||
| All Day | USD | Holiday | United States - Christmas | - | - |
Earnings Calendar
This week is a very quiet week for major earnings reports as the market focus has shifted entirely to the Christmas and New Year holidays.
| Symbol | Company Name | EPS Estimate | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Big Cap earnings reports this week. | |||
Analysis & Portfolio Impact
This week brings a unique dynamic between crucial data releases early in the week and holiday sentiment starting to dominate. Here are two main factors that could move the market before the year turns.
The Santa Claus Rally Phenomenon
Historically, the stock market often experiences a "Santa Claus Rally," defined as an uptrend in the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 days of the new year. This period officially kicks off on Wednesday, December 24.
Even though history records a high probability of gains, you need to stay alert because low volume can actually amplify price volatility. Sharp price moves can happen out of nowhere without big news.
What Does PCE Data Mean for Tech Stocks?
Monday's PCE inflation report is key. If the numbers come in "cool" (at or below estimates), this paves the way for the Fed to continue rate cuts in 2026.
This scenario is super Bullish for tech and growth stocks like $NVDA (NVIDIA), $TSLA (Tesla), and $AAPL (Apple). On the flip side, if inflation suddenly comes in Hot, we might see some profit taking before the year ends.
Ready to face this week's volatility? Top up your Gotrade account now and take advantage of the market momentum.
Disclaimer
Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
