US–Iran tensions and oil keep volatility elevated.
U.S. stocks ended last week under pressure as rising oil prices and ongoing developments in the Iran conflict weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 793 points, while the S&P 500 declined 1.67% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.15%, extending the recent pullback.
The move comes as investors continue to monitor geopolitical risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions have pushed oil prices higher. Brent crude climbed above $110 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) approached $100, keeping energy markets in focus.
At the same time, attention is shifting to a data-heavy week that could shape expectations for the economy and interest rates. Investors will closely watch the March jobs report, retail sales, consumer confidence, and trade balance data for signals on demand and growth.
Labor market data remains a key focus after signs of softening in recent months, including job cuts in February. Any further weakness could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps, particularly as inflation pressures remain uneven.
Corporate earnings will also be closely watched. Nike (NKE) is set to report as investors assess progress in its turnaround efforts, while Conagra (CAG) and other consumer companies may provide insight into spending trends across staples and discretionary categories.
Despite recent volatility, markets are balancing geopolitical risks with expectations for economic resilience, keeping both macro data and earnings in focus this week.
📊 Market Wrap
🧠 Analyst Notes
💬 Market Highlights
Eli Lilly Expands AI Drug Development Push with Major Insilico Deal
Eli Lilly (LLY) signed a new agreement with Insilico Medicine (ISLMF) worth up to $2.75 billion, deepening its push into artificial intelligence-driven drug development. Under the deal, Insilico will receive an upfront payment along with potential milestone payments and royalties, while Lilly gains exclusive global rights to develop and commercialize any resulting therapies. The agreement builds on a collaboration that began in 2023 and reflects Lilly’s broader strategy of using AI across the drug discovery process, from identifying biological targets to designing compounds, as the company seeks to accelerate research productivity and sustain long-term growth beyond its current obesity franchise.
Salesforce Shares May Have Bottomed, BNP Paribas Sees Turnaround Catalysts
Salesforce (CRM), whose shares have fallen about 35% over the past year, may have finally reached a bottom, according to BNP Paribas, which sees several near-term catalysts that could improve investor sentiment. A key driver is the company’s $50 billion buyback authorization, with the first $20 billion already completed and BNP now estimating roughly $25 billion of total FY27 repurchases, which could reduce diluted share count by about 8% versus prior expectations. In addition, an upcoming event led by CEO Marc Benioff focused on new Slack features, including Slackbot, is viewed as a potential catalyst to demonstrate real-world adoption of Salesforce’s AI products and help restore confidence in the company’s growth narrative.
Medicare Trust Fund Depletion Could Pressure Hospitals and Health Insurers
The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be depleted by 2040, which would shift the program to a pay-as-you-go structure where benefits can only be funded by incoming payroll taxes, potentially leading to payment cuts for hospitals and skilled nursing providers.
The analysis argues that Medicare would not literally go bankrupt, but once reserves are exhausted, scheduled benefits may only be partially funded, creating pressure on hospital margins and potentially rippling across the broader healthcare sector. Congress would likely have to choose among politically difficult options such as raising payroll taxes, broadening the tax base, reducing provider reimbursement, increasing the eligibility age, or adjusting Medicare Advantage payments, with implications for companies such as UnitedHealth (UNH), Humana (HUM), and CVS (CVS).
📅 Earnings Watch
Geopolitical developments, oil prices, and key economic data are likely to remain central drivers for markets this week, alongside earnings updates from major consumer companies.
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