Gotrade News - Indonesia's Composite Index (IHSG) is set to open weaker on Monday (27/04) after Friday's 3.38% decline. MSCI rebalancing pressure, fiscal deficit concerns, and a Moody's outlook cut are weighing on sentiment.
The IHSG closed last week at 7,129.49 after the steep Friday drop, citing kumparan. Phintraco Sekuritas expects the index to test the psychological support around 7,000 this week.
Key Takeaways:
- Near-term support sits at 7,022 with resistance at 7,313 and 7,484.
- BREN and DSSA face MSCI removal risk on free float deficiencies.
- Moody's kept Indonesia at Baa2 but cut the outlook from stable to negative.
MNC Sekuritas, via Herditya Wicaksana, sees the index correcting toward 7,022-7,115 to close existing gaps, citing liputan6. Pilarmas Investindo Securities sees a wider 7,000-7,325 trading band for the week.
WH Project notes the IHSG has slipped back into a downtrend channel after a brief stabilization, citing idxchannel. MSCI rebalancing remains the dominant headwind as no new index inclusions are expected and outflows continue.
MNC Sekuritas recommends ADMR, BULL, DAAZ, and HRTA on a buy-on-weakness strategy. ADMR targets 1,970-2,090 with a stoploss below 1,740.
Phintraco's picks include ADMR, ADRO, BFIN, ISAT, ULTJ, and SRTG for trading positions. Investors are also watching this week's Fed decision and China manufacturing data.
Rupiah weakness and oil price moves are secondary forces shaping domestic sentiment. A weaker rupiah typically intensifies foreign selling in large-cap names.
Indonesia's 2026 budget deficit risks widening, supporting Moody's outlook revision rationale. Markets will assess the government's fiscal communication as a key variable this week.
International investors holding Indonesia exposure should size positions with disciplined stops. Two-way volatility will likely persist until macro signals stabilize.
