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Oil is climbing again after Trump rejected Iran's offer on the Strait of Hormuz. Tonight, Carnival's results and US job openings data are the next test.
Wall Street closed lower Monday. According to AP, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 7,683.69, the Dow slipped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. The trigger: President Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%, its highest level since 2007, according to Yahoo Finance. High oil prices add to inflation pressure, and markets are now weighing the odds of another Fed rate hike.
The most direct read-through if oil keeps climbing.
Tonight's Catalysts
Carnival faces the fuel test
Carnival (CCL) reports third-quarter results before the US open. According to Investing.com, consensus sits at US$1,35 - US$1,36 in EPS on US$8,36 - US$8,40 billion in revenue. Carnival previously revised its full-year guidance for more than $500 million in added fuel costs. Demand is still strong, with 93% of 2026 capacity already booked, but CCL shares have fallen more than 20% in recent weeks.
Job openings and consumer confidence
August JOLTS job openings data and the Conference Board consumer confidence index are due at 10:00 a.m. ET. The Fed already raised rates in September. CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing roughly a 70% chance of another hike on October 28. That is market pricing, not a certainty. A stronger-than-expected print could push yields higher again.
Nvidia (NVDA) added $150 billion to its share buyback authorization, bringing the total to $235 billion, according to CNBC. NVDA rose 1.68% Monday while the major indexes fell. Tonight, watch whether that support holds if yields climb again.
Pre-Market Pulse 📊
As of 12:38 a.m. ET Tuesday, S&P 500 futures were down 0.25% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.45%, according to Yahoo Finance data. CarMax (KMX) also reports before the open, with consensus EPS around $0.70 according to Benzinga. ExxonMobil (XOM) rose 1.20% Monday as oil moved higher.
Macro Note 📝
According to CNBC, WTI crude rose more than 1% to around $93 a barrel in Tuesday trading, its second straight daily gain. Markets worry the Middle East conflict will last longer, even as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is flowing again.
Conclusion
Tonight, the market tests how far oil and rates can squeeze company earnings. Carnival is the clearest case, since its fuel costs hit the income statement with no hedge in place.
Also watch the 10:00 a.m. ET JOLTS release as a guide to the Fed's path. Tomorrow, Micron's results after the US close could be the next mover for chip stocks.
Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
M. Alfathan Rahman is a content writer with over 3 years of experience developing digital content strategies across various industries, including fintech. He has experience producing content for tax-related websites and financial education platforms registered with Kominfo (Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Informatics). His focus areas include data research, and crafting financial articles that are informative, accurate, and accessible to investors of all experience levels.
