Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
Gotrade News - Trump claims his tariffs sparked an economic miracle in the first year of his second term. But looking closer at the data, the reality is a bit more complex for global investors watching the markets right now.
Key Takeaways:
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S&P 500 rose 17% but is still underperforming Asian and European markets.
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US GDP shrank early in 2025 before bouncing back to 4.4% in the third quarter.
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Tariffs have pushed core goods prices up by 1.4%, excluding food and energy.
US economic growth hit an impressive 4.4% from July to September 2025. AP News reports this surge was driven by a drop in imports and consumer spending that stayed surprisingly resilient.
This momentum is actually a rebound after the economy shrank in the first quarter of last year. That early contraction happened because companies rushed to import goods before the official tariffs kicked in.
US Market Position
The S&P 500 posted a solid 17% gain and hit new highs 52 times throughout 2025. While that sounds decent, it’s lagging way behind South Korea’s massive 71% surge.
Japan and Germany also outperformed the US, posting gains of 26% and 22% respectively. This data suggests global diversification might be the move right now, rather than just sticking to US assets.
Inflation and Tariff Impact
Claims of drastically lower inflation don't quite align with core inflation data sitting at 2.6%. AP News notes this figure is actually slightly higher than where inflation stood back in October 2024.
A Harvard Business School study found that US consumers are bearing about 43% of the cost of these tariffs. Core goods prices rising 1.4% is pretty clear evidence of the direct impact of these protectionist policies.
Trump is boasting about securing $18 trillion in investment commitments from major trading partners. However, the White House released an official figure of $9.6 trillion, which mixes both private and public investments.
The uncertainty around these investments is a risk factor traders need to keep an eye on moving forward. You need to watch if these massive commitments actually turn into real capital flow or just stay as headlines.
That’s the market update worth watching today. Follow Gotrade News for timely coverage on US stocks, ETFs, and macro moves that shape market direction. For a structured starter guide, visit the Gotrade Blog to learn the basics and build your plan.
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Reference:
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AP News, FACT FOCUS: Trump says tariffs have created an economic miracle. The facts tell a different story. Accessed on February 6, 2026
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