Gotrade News - This week brings one of the heaviest agendas of the Q1 2026 earnings season. FOMC minutes, Nvidia's earnings, and US retail giants' reports will set the market tone for the next five sessions.
With Kevin Warsh officially replacing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on May 15, investor focus has shifted to the minutes from Powell's final FOMC meeting. Markets want to gauge how hawkish committee members were, especially after April's hotter-than-expected inflation print.
- FOMC minutes release Wednesday May 20, signaling the rate path under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Nvidia reports earnings May 20 with Wall Street consensus at $78B revenue and $1.77 EPS.
- Walmart, Home Depot, and Target serve as barometers for US consumer spending power.
Economic Calendar This Week
This week's calendar is dense even without CPI or Non-Farm Payrolls. FOMC minutes top the list as traders parse the dissent map among committee members from the final Powell-era meeting.
Key data releases to watch this week:
- Wednesday, May 20: FOMC minutes from the final Powell-era meeting.
- Wednesday, May 20: Nvidia fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after market close.
- Thursday, May 21: April Housing Starts and Building Permits.
- Thursday, May 21: S&P Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI for May.
- Thursday, May 21: Weekly initial jobless claims.
PMI and housing data are key for reading real economic activity. April Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5, its strongest reading since May 2022, and markets want to confirm the momentum holds in May.
Housing remains under pressure. March building permits printed 1.372 million units, down 10.8% MoM, signaling weak demand for new construction.
ISM Services New Orders and ISM Services Prices also release this week, two indicators traders often use as early reads on services-side inflation. Combined with PMI and housing, the data set will shape expectations heading into the June FOMC.
Markets will also parse remarks from several Fed officials through the week. The first public comments under the Warsh era can move the Treasury curve sharply if the tone diverges from Powell's.
Stocks to Watch
Nvidia (NVDA) is the most anticipated print of the week, reporting fiscal Q1 2027 results on Wednesday May 20 after the close. Wall Street consensus calls for $78 billion in revenue and $1.77 EPS, a 78% YoY revenue gain.
The implied probability that Nvidia beats expectations sits at roughly 90% on Polymarket. CEO Jensen Huang has guided for $1 trillion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI chip sales across 2026 and 2027.
Gross margin is the key metric analysts will watch alongside revenue. Markets want to confirm the Blackwell to Vera Rubin transition does not compress margins in the coming quarters.
Commentary from Jensen Huang on hyperscaler capex will also be a focal point. AI spending from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google remains the core driver of the Nvidia growth thesis into the second half of 2026.
Beyond Nvidia, US retail giants take center stage. Their reports will signal consumer health under persistent inflation pressure.
Retail names reporting this week:
- Walmart (WMT) on May 21, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a $140 price target.
- Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW), barometers of US home improvement spending.
- Target (TGT) and TJX (TJX), gauges of value-conscious consumer behavior.
Walmart's Q1 comparable sales consensus sits at 3.9%, helped by higher-income households trading down for value. E-commerce and Walmart Connect ad revenue add to the growth narrative.
Home Depot and Target have already cut their profit outlooks on weak home improvement demand and softer store traffic. This week's results will show whether the trend continues or starts to stabilize.
Other names worth watching include Intuit (INTU), Analog Devices (ADI), and Deere (DE). The trio gives cross-sector reads on tax software, industrial semiconductors, and agricultural machinery.
Market Sentiment
The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 on Friday May 8, marking its sixth straight weekly gain, the longest streak since 2024. Trading at record highs leaves room for a sharp correction if a negative catalyst hits.
Rate sentiment has shifted sharply in recent weeks. Traders now price a 20% chance of a Fed Rate hike in October and 30% in December, a reversal from the cut-dominant outlook earlier this year.
Three factors drove the shift:
- April inflation came in hotter than consensus, with headline CPI rising 0.6% MoM.
- FOMC members increasingly signal openness to rate hikes, not just holds.
- Treasury yields are climbing, particularly at the short end.
Kevin Warsh inherits the Fed at a difficult moment. Markets read Warsh as more open to cuts than Powell, but stubborn inflation limits his room to maneuver in the first half of 2026.
For active US stock traders, the focal points this week are the market reaction to FOMC minutes and Nvidia's print. Check the full schedule at the Gotrade Economic Calendar to plan around daily releases.
Volatility is likely to pick up heading into Nvidia earnings given its index weight. A single-day move in NVDA can swing both the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Likely outperformers this week are discount retail and AI semiconductors, two themes with specific catalysts from upcoming earnings. Housing and home improvement names face downside risk if Thursday's data prints below consensus.
Sources
Kiplinger, What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (May 18-22), 2026
The Motley Fool, Nvidia Reports Its Fiscal 2027 Q1 Earnings on May 20. Here's What to Expect., 2026
CNBC, Kevin Warsh comes into the Fed facing a big 'family fight' over cutting interest rates, 2026
The Motley Fool, Kevin Warsh Is the New Fed Chair and Rates May Not Drop This Year, 2026
