Global Markets Brace for US CPI (Futures Up, China Trade Surplus, Japan Bonds, BOJ ETF Sales)

M Alfathan RahmanM Alfathan RahmanHendrie Saputra
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Global Markets Brace for US CPI (Futures Up, China Trade Surplus, Japan Bonds, BOJ ETF Sales)

Summary

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.23% early Tuesday ahead of October CPI, which economists polled by Dow Jones expect to rise 0.3%, with core CPI up 0.2%, according to CNBC.
  • China's October trade surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion, the lowest since April, as imports grew 41.6% from a year earlier, according to CNBC.
  • Japan's 10-year yield edged toward 2.7%, and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the BOJ's faster ETF sales would add about 1 trillion yen a year in revenue.

Gotrade News - S&P 500 futures rose 0.23% early Tuesday ahead of the October consumer price index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline CPI up 0.3% and core CPI up 0.2% on the month, according to CNBC.

The report lands after a sharp rebound on Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,104 points, or 2.2%, and the S&P 500 rose about 2.4% for its best day since April 8, per CNBC. Dow futures added 258 points early Tuesday, while Nasdaq-100 futures traded just above the flatline.

October CPI Expected at 0.3% After September's 0.6% Jump

According to the BLS Consumer Price Index release for September 2026, published October 14, headline CPI rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and accounted for over half of that increase, while shelter rose 0.4% after a 0.3% gain in August. The table below sets the last three monthly prints from that release beside the Dow Jones consensus for October reported by CNBC.

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Month (2026)Headline CPI, m/mCore CPI, m/mStatus
July0.1%0.2%Actual (BLS)
August0.4%0.3%Actual (BLS)
September0.6%0.3%Actual (BLS)
October0.3%0.2%Expected (Dow Jones consensus, via CNBC)

CNBC noted there will be no comparable year-over-year figure for October, because the BLS was unable to collect some data during the 2025 government shutdown. Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis CIB Americas, expects core CPI to slow due to "a reversion of shelter prices," as reported by CNBC.

What Does the October CPI Mean for the Fed?

The report will show Fed officials whether price pressures eased after September's jump, and at least one of them was already worried going in. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee flagged inflation fears on Monday, saying the AI data center buildout is "starting to look more just like old-fashioned demand overheating," according to CNBC.

Nvidia Slid 4% as the S&P 500 Rebounded

Not every large-cap name joined Monday's rally. Nvidia (NVDA) slid 4% after its board launched an independent investigation following a New York Times report that CEO Jensen Huang admitted an affair with a woman US intelligence officials say is a Chinese spy, according to CNBC. President Donald Trump said Huang told him he "had no idea that she was a spy."

Read also: Safe Pro Group Wins $2.5 Million U.S. Army Prime Contract

Investors who hold the benchmarks through funds such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) now face the CPI print after the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.7% on Monday, per CNBC.

SPY, QQQ and NVDA Market Data

TickerCloseDaily change
SPY$752.69+2.37%
QQQ$679.35+3.54%
NVDA$178.67-4.27%

Regular-session close on November 9, 2026, New York time. Prices and changes: Yahoo Finance, cross-checked against the closing price on Nasdaq.com.

China's October Trade Surplus Narrows to $105.3 Billion

China's exports rose 35.2% year over year in October, above the 33.5% estimate in a Reuters poll but slower than September's 36.3%, according to CNBC. Imports grew 41.6%, beating a 32% estimate, as the trade surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion, the lowest since April based on LSEG data. The surplus for the first 10 months still reached $1.04 trillion, against a record $1.2 trillion for all of 2025.

Japan's 10-Year Yield Nears 2.7% as BOJ Speeds Up ETF Sales

Japan's 10-year government bond yield edged higher toward 2.7% on Tuesday, moving away from four-month lows as Bank of Japan signals turned more hawkish, according to Trading Economics.

The BOJ on October 30 raised its annual pace of ETF sales to 860 billion yen from 330 billion yen on a book-value basis, as reported by Investing.com. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the faster sales would add approximately 1 trillion yen ($6.33 billion) in annual revenue, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said last week that the proceeds would fund investment in sectors critical to economic security, per Investing.com.

Kospi Jumps 4.39% as Brent Slips to $91.45

Asian markets followed Wall Street higher on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.87% higher at 60,459.58, and South Korea's Kospi jumped 4.39% to 5,239.13 after a "sidecar" curb briefly paused program buying when the index rose more than 5%, according to CNBC. SoftBank Group surged 13.4% as Asian tech stocks tracked the US rebound.

Oil extended its slide, with Brent down 1.3% at $91.45 a barrel and WTI down 1.3% at $85.70 early Tuesday, after President Trump called fresh US strikes on Iran "highly unlikely," per CNBC.

This article is for education and information only and is not investment advice. Investment decisions are yours to make after your own research.

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Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.


M Alfathan Rahman
Written by
M Alfathan Rahman
M. Alfathan Rahman is a content writer with over 3 years of experience developing digital content strategies across various industries, including fintech. He has experience producing content for tax-related websites and financial education platforms. His focus areas include data research, and crafting financial articles that are informative, accurate, and accessible to investors of all experience levels.
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Hendrie Saputra
Reviewed by
Hendrie Saputra
Expert Reviewer
Hendrie Saputra holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a concentration in Business Risk & Finance, along with professional experience in finance, marketing, and project management. He is experienced in analyzing market data and developing research-driven business strategies.
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