The September jobs report lands tonight, after Treasury yields briefly hit their highest level since 2002.
Wall Street opened October with small gains. According to CNBC, the S&P 500 rose 0.2% on Thursday, while the Dow and the Nasdaq closed marginally higher. All three indexes are still on pace for weekly losses.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached as high as 5.344%, its highest level since 2002, before it retreated. Tonight, the market waits for one release that could shift rate expectations: the US jobs report.
Tonight's Watchlist
Stock | Movement | What to Watch |
|---|
NVDA | +1.09% Thursday at $230.86 | AI chip stocks are sensitive to yields. Watch the reaction after the jobs data. |
AVGO | -2.15% Thursday at $343.64 | Another rate-sensitive AI infrastructure name. Watch the reaction to the jobs data. |
XOM | +0.66% Thursday at $163.82 | Brent rose 4.4% on Thursday after a report that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Watch oil prices tonight. |
NKE | -0.71% Thursday at $35.15; after-hours -8.71% to $32.09 | First-quarter sales missed estimates, and Nike announced a restructuring plan. Watch the reaction at the regular open. |
Source: closing and after-hours prices from StockAnalysis. What to Watch: CNBC (NVDA, AVGO, NKE), CNBC Daily Open (XOM).
Tonight's Key Events
The September jobs report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to CNBC, the Dow Jones consensus calls for 84,000 new jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Fed funds futures show a 72% likelihood that the Fed holds rates in October.
Fed officials still lean hawkish
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan estimates that at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes are needed, according to Seeking Alpha. Fed Governor Lisa Cook sees the AI buildup as the top inflation risk for 2027, according to Investing.com.
Natixis economist Christopher Hodge said a strong report alone would likely not push the Fed to hike in October.
Nike sales miss estimates
Nike (NKE) earned $0.48 per share, above the $0.43 estimate, but revenue of $11.21 billion came in below the $11.32 billion estimate, according to CNBC. Sales fell 4% on declines in China, and Nike announced a restructuring plan.
Pre-Market Pulse 📊
Early Friday US time, S&P 500 futures rose 0.26%, Dow futures rose 0.24%, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.42%, according to CNBC.
Macro Note 📝
Brent rose 4.4% to $102.31 a barrel on Thursday after a report that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, according to CNBC. Asian stocks fell on Friday, with the Hang Seng down 2.48%.
Conclusion
Tonight's jobs data is the main test for the market after this week's jump in yields. A number far from consensus, in either direction, could shift rate expectations.
High oil prices add another inflation risk that the Fed is watching.
This article is for education and information only and is not investment advice. Investment decisions are yours to make after your own research.
What stocks are you watching tonight?
