Saudi-Houthi Conflict and Oil Prices (Trump Oil Deal, Yemen)

M Alfathan RahmanM Alfathan RahmanHendrie Saputra
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Saudi-Houthi Conflict and Oil Prices (Trump Oil Deal, Yemen)

Summary

  • Brent eased to $105.43 and WTI to $92.60 on Tuesday after a Monday rally above $106, per Oilprice.com.
  • A strike on Riyadh's main airport killed at least 12 people, and Trump said the US may join Saudi strikes on the Houthis.
  • Saudi Arabia said its exports are not at risk, while Goldman Sachs estimates geopolitics adds just over $20 a barrel.

Gotrade News - Oil prices eased on Tuesday after topping $106 a barrel a day earlier, as traders weighed the escalating Saudi-Houthi conflict against Saudi assurances that exports are safe and a new US-Russia diesel deal.

According to Oilprice.com, Brent crude traded at $105.43 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $92.60, both slightly below Monday's close but still above levels seen the week before.

The pullback follows a sharp Monday rally. As reported by Oilprice.com, WTI rose 2.10% to $93.78 and Brent gained 2.00% to $106.80 on Monday morning, reaching their highest levels in nearly two weeks after a deadly strike on Riyadh's main airport and attacks on two tankers near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Riyadh Airport Strike Kills at Least 12

The weekend attack hit King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital on Saturday, October 10. According to Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority, as reported by The Times of Israel, at least 12 people were killed and more than 300 injured, with the missile striking the complex housing domestic terminals 3 and 4.

The Houthis did not formally claim the strike, though their military spokesperson reposted an earlier warning that only pre-approved humanitarian flights could land at Riyadh airport, per The Times of Israel.

The same report said a truce in Yemen's war between the Houthis and the Riyadh-backed government collapsed in July, and the group has since attacked Saudi airports, oil facilities and tankers.

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Asked whether the US would join Saudi strikes on the Houthis, President Donald Trump said: "We may. We're going to look at it." He added that "what happened in Saudi Arabia's not acceptable," according to The Times of Israel.

Saudi Energy Minister Says Exports Are Not at Risk

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman sought to calm markets, saying there is no danger to oil exports from the kingdom, per Oilprice.com. Speaking at the WPC Energy Congress on Monday, he said resilience "must also be measured by the ability to continue delivering under pressure," a remark first quoted by Bloomberg.

"Energy resilience is beyond barrels of spare capacity, of pipelines and gigawatts of generation." Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Energy Minister, as quoted by Bloomberg via Oilprice.com

Supply risks remain in focus. According to Oilprice.com, the tanker attacks threaten the recovery in Gulf oil exports, which reached 81% of prewar levels in September, with crude and condensate at 91% but refined products at only 60%.

Trump's Russian Diesel Deal and Goldman's $90 Brent Call

On the supply side, Trump said on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel, or about 2.25 million barrels, with more to follow, as reported by Oilprice.com.

The deal's total volume is 4.8 million tons, but analysts say that is far too small to move pump prices for long, and some members of Congress argue it violates sanctions on Russia, per Oilprice.com.

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85 and estimates that geopolitical risks are adding just over $20 a barrel to current prices, according to Oilprice.com.

Separately, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said 2026 oil demand growth is now expected at 400,000 barrels per day, down from 1.4 million at the start of the year.

Benchmark

Monday, Oct 12 (morning)

Tuesday, Oct 13

Brent crude

$106.80 (+2.00%)

$105.43

WTI crude

$93.78 (+2.10%)

$92.60

Gulf of Mexico Restart for Chevron, Shell and BP

For US-listed energy majors, the week also brought operational news. Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL) and BP (BP) were preparing to restore Gulf of Mexico offshore production after Hurricane Isaias disrupted operations over the weekend, according to Oilprice.com.

Sources

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Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.


M Alfathan Rahman
Written by
M Alfathan Rahman
M. Alfathan Rahman is a content writer with over 3 years of experience developing digital content strategies across various industries, including fintech. He has experience producing content for tax-related websites and financial education platforms registered with Kominfo (Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Informatics). His focus areas include data research, and crafting financial articles that are informative, accurate, and accessible to investors of all experience levels.
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Hendrie Saputra
Reviewed by
Hendrie Saputra
Expert Reviewer
Hendrie Saputra holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a concentration in Business Risk & Finance, along with professional experience in finance, marketing, and project management. He is experienced in analyzing market data and developing research-driven business strategies.
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