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Summary
The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31 on Monday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Dow added 0.2%.
CME FedWatch data showed the odds of an October Fed hike falling to about 20% from roughly 70% a week earlier.
September payrolls rose by just 29,000, well below the 90,000 economists expected, cooling rate-hike fears.
Gotrade News - The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31 on Monday, up 1.1%, as traders cut bets on an October Federal Reserve rate hike to about 20% from roughly 70% a week earlier, according to Investing.com. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, and megacap tech led the gains.
The shift followed a weak September jobs report, which pushed investors toward a Fed hold this month. Stock futures held steady in evening trading as markets looked ahead to Fed minutes and the start of bank earnings.
Nasdaq Record Close Led by Nvidia and Megacaps
Per Investing.com, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2% on Monday. Nvidia (NVDA) reached a record market value of about $5.76 trillion, while Microsoft rose 1.48% and Meta Platforms climbed 1.90%. Tesla (TSLA) also finished among the session's gainers.
Investors following the tech-heavy index through the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) saw futures extend modestly after the close. As reported by Investing.com, Nasdaq 100 futures stood at 31,393.75 and S&P 500 futures at 7,837.25 at 21:10 ET, each up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
Regular-session close on October 5, 2026, New York time. Prices and changes: Yahoo Finance, cross-checked against Nasdaq's official close.
Why Did Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade?
Hike bets faded because September hiring came in far weaker than forecast. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release, nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, and the July and August figures were revised down by a combined 60,000.
As reported by The Edge Malaysia, economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 90,000.
The table below sets out the last three monthly payroll prints from the BLS release, with the September consensus from The Edge Malaysia's report.
Month (2026)
Nonfarm payroll change
Note
July
-10,000
Revised from +21,000
August
+133,000
Revised from +162,000
September
+29,000
Consensus: +90,000
Stocks first reacted on Friday, when the Nasdaq rose 1.19% to 27,190.86 and the S&P 500 gained 0.73%, per The Edge Malaysia. That report cited CME FedWatch odds of an end-of-October hike at 22.7%, down from 64.2% a week earlier.
"Today's news was OK insofar as it means the economy isn't roaring... cautious optimism is kind of where people are," said Robert Bernstone, head of trading at SummitTX Capital, as quoted by The Edge Malaysia.
A December increase remains largely priced in, according to Investing.com, so the repricing so far applies mainly to the October meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.31%, near its highest level since 2002, the same report said.
What Comes Next for Stocks After the Nasdaq Record?
The next test arrives Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September meeting, per Investing.com. PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines also report this week, events laid out in our US market outlook on Fed minutes, PepsiCo and Delta earnings.
Third-quarter results from the major US banks begin next week, according to Investing.com, giving investors fresh data to weigh alongside rate expectations; a primer on how to read an earnings report covers the figures to watch.
Oil also eased, with Brent crude down 2% on Monday after Middle East exports increased and G7 nations pledged to boost supply, the same report said.
This article is for education and information only and is not investment advice. Investment decisions are yours to make after your own research.
Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
M. Alfathan Rahman is a content writer with over 3 years of experience developing digital content strategies across various industries, including fintech. He has experience producing content for tax-related websites and financial education platforms registered with Kominfo (Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Informatics). His focus areas include data research, and crafting financial articles that are informative, accurate, and accessible to investors of all experience levels.
Hendrie Saputra holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a concentration in Business Risk & Finance, along with professional experience in finance, marketing, and project management. He is experienced in analyzing market data and developing research-driven business strategies.
