Weekly Market Outlook: AI Earnings and US Jobs

Kholida QothrunnadaKholida Qothrunnada
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Weekly Market Outlook: AI Earnings and US Jobs

Gotrade News - This is shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the Q2 2026 earnings season, with three tech and healthcare giants reporting on consecutive days. At the same time, Friday's US jobs report could set the tone for Fed Rate expectations through the rest of 2026.

  • Palantir, AMD, and Eli Lilly earnings are the main market drivers this week.
  • Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls could shake up Fed Rate cut expectations.
  • Markets sit at record highs, but soft labor data adds Volatility risk.

This Week's Economic Agenda

The biggest event this week lands on Friday, when the July Non-Farm Payrolls report is released. It is the most direct read on how quickly the US labor market is cooling.

Consensus points to around 87,000 jobs added in July. For context, the June report showed just 57,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%.

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Why does this matter to you? A softer labor market usually pushes the Fed to cut rates sooner, which tends to be positive for stocks.

But there is a fine line here. If the data comes in too weak, markets may read it as a sign of a slowing economy rather than just a reason to cut the Fed Rate.

Alongside payrolls, markets will also watch the weekly jobless claims as an early indicator. Together, this data will shape expectations for whether the Fed cuts at its September meeting.

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Keep in mind the Fed just met in late July and held its policy stance. So this week is about the data that shapes the next decision, not a Fed meeting itself.

Beyond the jobs data, investors will track Fed commentary through the week. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are both scheduled to speak on Wednesday.

What makes this week more interesting is that the Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, is seen as less forthcoming about policy direction. That means every economic release will be scrutinized more closely than usual.

Key items to keep on your radar:

  • Monday to Wednesday: a wave of megacap tech and healthcare earnings.
  • Wednesday: comments from Fed officials Lisa Cook and Mary Daly.
  • Friday: the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, the week's biggest macro driver.

Stocks to Watch

Earnings season is the main event this week. Three big names report over three straight days, and each represents a major market theme.

Palantir (PLTR) kicks off the week with its report on Monday after the US close. Q2 revenue is expected to jump 81% to around $1.81 billion, making it a real test for the AI software theme.

Interestingly, Palantir shares are already down about 30% in 2026 on concerns its valuation is too rich. That sets a high bar, so it likely needs to beat estimates and raise guidance for the stock to react well.

AMD follows on Tuesday after the close. The focus is on production of its MI450 AI chips, with revenue expected to grow around 46% to $11.2 billion.

AMD's report is often a gauge of how strong AI chip demand is beyond Nvidia. Margin guidance and production capacity will be the key words the market looks for.

Still in chips, SanDisk reports on Wednesday and offers a read on the NAND memory market. Its results could signal where memory chip pricing heads after a soft stretch.

Eli Lilly (LLY) reports Wednesday morning. The GLP-1 giant is expected to post revenue growth of around 30%, driven by its Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs.

The main question is how much pressure is coming from rival Novo Nordisk. The weight-loss drug market is getting crowded, and market share is at stake.

Reports from the consumer and industrial sectors will round out the economic picture. Investors use them to judge whether spending power and business activity remain healthy.

Beyond those three, several other large companies report this week:

Market Sentiment

Markets enter this week with strong momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just set records, powered by blockbuster earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

For context, the S&P 500 closed late July near 7,490, while the Nasdaq sat around 25,370. Both are close to all-time highs.

Both megacap reports revived optimism around AI spending. That sentiment also lifted global semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA).

The earnings data so far is supportive. About 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported beat expectations, with aggregate Profit growth above 47%.

Some Wall Street analysts still see room for further gains, with one major bank holding an S&P 500 target of 8,150. Even so, they stress the market needs confirmation from economic data, not just earnings euphoria.

But the path is not necessarily smooth. Other analysts warn that speculation levels are already high, while soft labor data could trigger profit-taking.

The bottom line is that this week cuts both ways. Strong earnings are bullish fuel, but Friday's jobs report and a quieter Fed add to the potential for Volatility.

If you are a long-term investor, the focus is not on guessing daily moves. Use this stretch to track the fundamentals of the companies you hold, rather than chasing short-term hype.

Check the full release schedule on the Gotrade Economic Calendar so you do not miss any key moments.

Sources

CNBC, Stock market next week: Outlook for Aug. 3-7, 2026, 2026

TradingKey, August Kicks Off: Palantir, AMD, SanDisk Earnings and NFP Jobs Report, 2026

Yardeni Research, Economic Week Ahead: August 3-7, 2026

CNBC, S&P 500 closes higher Friday as Amazon surges, 2026

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Disclaimer

Gotrade is the trading name of Gotrade Securities Inc., which is registered with and supervised by the Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.


Kholida Qothrunnada
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Kholida Qothrunnada

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