Gotrade News - This is one of the busiest weeks of the Q3 2026 earnings season. A Fed decision, US GDP, PCE inflation and Big Tech results all land within roughly two days.
- The Fed is expected to hold Wednesday, with focus on December guidance.
- Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report, testing the AI spending story.
- Thursday's Q3 GDP and Core PCE data could move Treasury yields.
Last week, Wall Street closed mostly lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, while the Nasdaq declined 0.21%. The Dow Jones dropped 1.23% to 52,215.16.
That leaves the market heading into this week a little more cautious, especially in tech. Here is what to prepare for.
This Week's Economic Calendar
The main event is the FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon US time. CME FedWatch data points to roughly an 88% chance that rates stay unchanged after September's hike.
With a hold largely priced in, markets will focus on Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. According to FXEmpire, futures currently price around an 80% chance of another hike in December.
These are the key US data releases this week:
- Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders (forecast up 1.8%), Consumer Confidence (forecast 80.5) and New Home Sales.
- Wednesday: the Fed rate decision, FOMC statement and Warsh press conference.
- Thursday: advance Q3 GDP (forecast around 3%), monthly Core PCE (forecast 0.3%) and weekly jobless claims.
- Friday: the Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI.
Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A hotter reading could strengthen December hike expectations and weigh on growth stocks.
A softer print could ease some of that pressure. Expect volatility to pick up from Wednesday's decision through Thursday, as data and earnings arrive back to back.
GDP is worth reading alongside inflation. Strong growth paired with sticky inflation gives the Fed a reason to stay tight for longer.
Tuesday's Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence figures are smaller events than PCE. Still, they offer an early read on US business and consumer spending heading into year end.
For readers in Asia, note that the Fed decision and the Wednesday evening US earnings land in the early hours of Thursday local time.
Stocks to Watch
Big Tech is the center of attention because the results will test confidence in AI data center spending. Hyperscaler capital spending is expected to total around $800 billion this year.
These are the names worth watching, with consensus EPS estimates:
- Microsoft (MSFT): reports Wednesday after the close, EPS estimate $4.71. Watch Azure growth and the capital spending outlook.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): reports Wednesday after the close, EPS estimate $3.00 on expected revenue of $127.9 billion. Google Cloud and AI in Search are in focus.
- Amazon (AMZN): reports Thursday after the close, EPS estimate $1.96 on expected revenue of $202.2 billion. AWS is the key line.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): reports Thursday before the open. Weight-loss drug sales remain the main focus.
- Intel (INTC): reports Thursday after the close, EPS estimate $0.40. Investors want updates on the foundry business and margins.
Microsoft and Alphabet report just hours after the Fed decision. That timing could make Thursday's Nasdaq moves sharper than usual.
When reading Big Tech results, look beyond the EPS line. Capital spending guidance and cloud growth often move the share price more after the release.
If cloud growth slows while spending keeps rising, the market can react negatively even on a profit beat. That pattern has shown up in several past earnings seasons.
Beyond Big Tech, several other reports are on the calendar:
Visa and Mastercard offer a read on US consumer spending. Exxon and Chevron will show how oil prices are feeding into energy sector profits.
Market Sentiment
Overall, sentiment sits at neutral with a cautious lean. On the positive side, S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are on pace to grow about 29.5% year over year, according to FactSet as of Oct. 23, with 24% of companies reported.
The major indexes also remain above rising 52-week moving averages. That suggests the longer-term uptrend is still intact.
On the other hand, tech shares came under pressure last week after Meta and Lam Research results disappointed investors. The market is now more sensitive to whether this scale of AI spending will pay off.
Three risks could weigh on markets this week:
- Big Tech earnings or guidance that fall short of expectations.
- A Core PCE reading that comes in hotter than forecast.
- A strongly hawkish tone from Warsh on a December hike.
If all three come in at or better than expected, markets have room to steady. With so many events packed into two days, though, prices can shift quickly.
For retail investors, conditions like these can prompt emotional decisions. A sharp jump or drop after earnings does not always reflect a stock's long-term direction.
Keep an eye on US Treasury yields and the dollar after the Fed decision. A sharp rise in yields tends to weigh on richly valued tech stocks.
It helps to know the report dates for any stocks you follow and to understand the risks involved before making decisions.
This article is for education and information only and is not investment advice. Investment decisions are yours to make after your own research.
Sources
FXEmpire, The Week Ahead: Fed, AI Earnings and PCE Data Test Stock Market Strength, 2026
CNBC, Here are 4 big things we're watching in the stock market this week, 2026
Seeking Alpha, Wall Street Week Ahead, 2026
FactSet, S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026, 2026
