Gotrade News - This week kicks off one of the busiest stretches of the late Q1 2026 earnings season. US markets close Monday for Memorial Day, then April PCE inflation and the second Q1 GDP estimate land on Thursday.
- Salesforce, Dell, and Costco earnings will set the tone for tech and consumer sectors.
- April PCE inflation drops Thursday, the last big read before the June 16-17 FOMC.
- New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just took office, markets watch his first rate signals.
This Week's Economic Calendar
After Monday's Memorial Day close, the data flow picks up immediately on Tuesday. The headline events are April PCE inflation and the second estimate of Q1 GDP, both released Thursday.
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. March came in at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core year-over-year, both well above the 2% target.
Economists now expect Q2 PCE to print 4.5% headline and 3.4% core, sharply higher than the prior 2.7% estimate. The revision reflects rising oil prices tied to the US-Israel and Iran conflict.
What to watch in Thursday's PCE report is the core month-over-month print. A core MoM reading above 0.3% would signal that inflation is becoming sticky and could erase market expectations of a rate cut this year.
Other releases on the docket this week include:
- May Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)
- April New Home Sales (Wednesday)
- Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods (Thursday)
- Multivariate Core Trend Inflation from the Cleveland Fed (Friday)
Tuesday's Consumer Confidence number also matters. It is the cleanest proxy for how willing US consumers are to spend, and the index has been pressured for several months by elevated inflation expectations.
Check the full release schedule and consensus estimates at the Gotrade Economic Calendar. It helps you map positions before the data hits.
Stocks to Watch
The late tail of Q1 2026 earnings season brings several major tech and consumer names this week. Market reaction will be a real-time read on investor risk appetite.
Salesforce (CRM) reports Wednesday after the close. Analyst consensus sits around $2.30 EPS, up 18.6% year-over-year, with revenue guidance of $11.03 billion to $11.08 billion.
Focus is on AI growth and margins given the broader software slowdown. CRM has beaten estimates four quarters running, and Wall Street consensus remains Strong Buy.
Wednesday also brings Marvell Technology (MRVL), Synopsys (SNPS), and Snowflake (SNOW). Together the trio gives a clean read on enterprise AI spend heading into Q2.
Thursday is the consumer earnings peak. Costco (COST) is expected to report about $69.3 billion in revenue (9% YoY growth) and adjusted EPS near $4.56 (13% YoY growth).
The key thing to watch on COST is margin. Fuel and fulfillment costs may pressure profitability even as membership renewals and e-commerce stay strong.
Same day, Dell (DELL) reports with consensus EPS of $2.92 on $34.8 billion in revenue. Bank of America raised its price target to $280 with a Buy rating, leaning into the AI server tailwind.
For DELL, the focus is the AI server backlog and forward guidance. Management already set a strong tone last quarter, so the outlook commentary will be the bigger catalyst than the print itself.
Other Thursday earnings worth tracking:
- Best Buy (BBY), a barometer for consumer electronics demand
- Dollar Tree (DLTR), a window into low-income consumer health
- MongoDB (MDB), a database play with AI workload upside
- Autodesk (ADSK), industrial and design software
- Gap (GAP), a mid-market apparel read
Tuesday's lineup includes AutoZone (AZO) and Zscaler (ZS). Smaller names, but useful pulse checks on auto aftermarket and enterprise cybersecurity.
Market Sentiment
The big narrative this week is the Fed's leadership transition. Kevin Warsh was sworn in on May 22 after a tight 54-45 Senate confirmation vote earlier in the month.
Warsh wants to return the Fed to its core mandate of price stability and maximum employment. He has also emphasized monetary policy independence from political pressure.
For markets, the question is when Warsh signals his rate path. His first FOMC meets June 16-17, so every public statement this week will be scrutinized closely.
The Fed Funds target sits at 3.50% to 3.75%, with consensus leaning toward hold or at most one cut this year. Sticky inflation from the Middle East and oil prices leaves little room for a dovish pivot.
On the earnings side, Nvidia (NVDA) set a high bar last week with record Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% YoY. The board added $80 billion to its buyback authorization and raised the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.
That result reinforces the case that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing. But tech valuations are stretched, so this week's earnings reactions will be a real test of whether momentum can continue.
Some Wall Street analysts are starting to ask whether market expectations for tech Q2 earnings are now too optimistic. The first answer comes through the guidance from Salesforce, Dell, and Snowflake this week.
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 7,209 in late April. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.40%, leaving both stocks and bonds in wait-and-see mode ahead of PCE and the June FOMC.
The bond market itself looks more cautious. The 2-year and 10-year yield spread remains flat, a sign that bond investors are still worried about near-term growth even as risk-on stays in force across equities.
Your prep for this week is straightforward. Expect volatility around Thursday's PCE release, keep position sizes in check, and avoid over-leverage heading into the macro calendar.
Keep an eye on Middle East headlines as well. Any escalation or de-escalation can move oil prices directly and, through oil, shift inflation expectations and the direction of US equities.
Sources
CNBC, Kevin Warsh wins Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chair, 2026
Kiplinger, What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (May 25-29), 2026
Yahoo Finance, Salesforce's Q1 2027 Earnings: What to Expect, 2026
CNN Business, Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair at pivotal moment for US economy, 2026
